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By Tim Ahmann WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Federal Reserve officials are expected to nudge interest rates up on Tuesday for a fifth time this year, another small step in a campaign to gradually lift borrowing costs before inflation rears its head. The Fed has raised overnight borrowing costs by a quarter-percentage point at each of its last four policy sessions, and analysts are unanimous in the view that a fifth small hike will come when officials meet this week. Economists are almost equally certain the Fed will restate its view that risks to economic growth and inflation are in balance when it announces its rate decision. Another quarter-point move would take the bellwether federal funds rate, which banks charge each other for overnight loans, to 2.25 percent -- a level analysts said is still low enough to offer an economic boost. "Right now there really isn't much debate about what the Fed's doing because the funds rate is still quite low," said James Glassman, senior U.S. economist at J.P. Morgan Chase. Economists said, while the Fed's decision on Tuesday is a relatively easy one, the central bank will face increasingly tough calls as rates rise, with incoming data carrying more and more weight in its deliberations. "It's largely a no-brainer in December and ... I think there will still be strong sentiment to tighten in February," said Michael Moran, chief economist at Daiwa Securities America. "After February, I think it's almost totally data-dependent with the bias toward moving." CROSSCURRENTS The Fed began raising its benchmark rate in June from an extremely low 1 percent, where it stood after 13 cuts that helped the economy through the 2001 recession and shaky subsequent recovery. Recently, economic data have been mixed, but most economists continue to look for solid growth next year and expect the Fed to slowly push rates up toward 3 percent. U.S. employers added 112,000 workers to their payrolls last month, but that unexpectedly weak reading followed a hearty 303,000-job gain in October. Continued ...
mortgage
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By Glenn Somerville WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Sales of new U.S. homes tumbled at the sharpest rate in more than a decade in November, the government said on Thursday, but a separate report showed consumers' mood still buoyant near the end of 2004. A slew of reports, issued ahead of a Friday closing for government offices and U.S. financial markets for Christmas, painted a somewhat muddled picture of steady but unspectacular expansion. Sales of new homes plunged 12 percent last month, the biggest drop since a 23.8 percent fall in January 1994, to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.125 million units. But industry analysts played its significance down, saying applications for new mortgages still were at healthy levels. "I would not view this report as the beginning of a significant downturn," David Berson, chief economist for mortgage financing giant Fannie Mae in Washington. A forward-looking report from the University of Michigan showed its final index reading of consumer confidence for December at 97.1, up from November's final reading of 92.8 and December's preliminary reading of 95.7. HOPEFUL ON CONSUMERS "The sentiment gain is a good sign that consumer spending could remain a mainstay of economic growth," said Patrick Fearon, an economist with A.G. Edwards and Sons Inc. in St. Louis, Missouri. "It's gratifying to see that improvement." Bond prices softened over the course of a shortened session in light pre-holiday trading. The 10-year Treasury note (US10YT=RR: Quote , Profile , Research ) fell 6/32 in price to yield 4.22 percent, up from 4.20 percent late Wednesday and the 30-year bond (US30YT=RR: Quote , Profile , Research ) was down 6/32, yielding 4.84 percent, up from 4.82 percent. Stocks extended a rally, with the Dow Jones industrial average ahead 11.23 points to end at 10.827.12 while the Nasdaq composite index closed up 3 points at 2,160. Other reports on Thursday indicated consumers kept a grip on their wallets in November, spending less heartily and saving slightly more. They also showed U.S. factories enjoyed a surprisingly strong business pickup last month. Consumer spending edged up a slim 0.2 percent in November -- a fraction of October's 0.8 percent jump -- as purchases of new cars dropped sharply. The figure is closely monitored since consumers fuel two-thirds of national economic activity. Continued ...
insurance
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By Christopher Kaufman SINGAPORE (Reuters) - Asian share markets saw light selling in line with a slowing retreat in oil prices on Tuesday, while the dollar steadied as officials in Europe and Japan fretted about the U.S. currency's recent decline. Japan's Nikkei average lost 0.59 percent to close at 11,161.75. The MSCI index of Asian share markets outside of Japan was 0.23 percent lower, while MSCI's World Index was down less than 0.1 percent by 0610 GMT. Gold was little changed after hitting $440 an ounce a day earlier, its highest in more than 16 years, as the U.S. dollar's weakness bolstered its safe-haven appeal. "Commodities prices, except for gold, now basically follow oil prices, which are on a downturn after hitting record highs (last month)," said Takahiko Murai, general manager of equities at Nozomi Securities. Banks and insurers gained in Japan, but profit-taking hit technology stocks such as Kyocera Corp. Mizuho Financial Group Inc., Japan's biggest banking group by assets, gained 1.35 percent and Millea Holdings Inc., Japan's biggest casualty insurance company, jumped 2.58 percent. Weakness in Australian blue chips pulled the S&P ASX 200 off all-time highs to finish the day 0.29 percent lower. But Australian copper and nickel miner WMC Resources Ltd. rallied 4.8 percent to a record high on speculation of an imminent takeover bid for the company, which last month rejected an approach from Swiss-based Xstrata Plc. L> An 0.22 percent loss in Samsung Electronics Co. Ltd. led South Korea's KOSPI to a 0.65 percent loss. NYMEX crude oil futures were seen falling back below $46 a barrel as warmer weather breaks in the U.S. Northeast and after the suspension of a strike in Nigeria. U.S. light crude for December delivery was down 13 cents at $46.74 a barrel. Monday, the contract fell to $45.25, its lowest since it hit $43.91 on Sept. 17. Spot gold was bid at $436.25 an ounce, against $436.45 an ounce late in New York Monday. Continued ...
 
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